Let the second half begin

Baseball is a funny sport. Its regular season (162 games) is way too long and yet when every team takes three days off in the middle of the season, it feels like the world is about to end. This might have something to do with the fact that nothing else is going on. The NBA and NHL playoffs are long gone and NFL preseason is just a glimmer in a few months.
The consistency of baseball season is one of its most alluring features. On any given summer night (unless you're a Cubs fan), you can catch your team on the tv/radio/internet. For as great as the NFL is, its one main downfall is that one game a week doesn't cut it for most A.D.D. afflicted American sports fans. We need games all the time. The MLB All-Star game actually falls a little bit past the halfway mark of the season but for all intents and purposes, its a solid marker. The Red Sox headed into the break at 53-34, 10 games ahead of Toronto and New York. As the last weekend showed, the Sox can't simply cruise to the playoffs. The Tigers swept them in three games at Comerica Park, showing why they're the team to beat now that Kenny Rogers is back. A rotation of Bonderman, Verlander and Rogers with a lineup of Sheffield, Ordonez, Guillen, Pudge, etc. is very scary indeed. Their bullpen may be awful but that doesn't seem to be a big deal.
Most people don't want to start crowning the Sox AL East champs yet but I think that's silly. Sure, they'll win the division. Anything can happen, its a long season, blah blah. That's a forgone conclusion. The bigger and more important question is will they make it through the AL playoffs which are shaping up to be one of the toughest in recent memories. Assuming the Tigers, Red Sox and Angels win their divisions with the Wild Card being most likely the Indians and possibly the Mariners, dang.
I'm getting ahead of myself though. I should take a second to look back on the first half and examine what we learned through three months.

1) Dustin Pedroia is a solid major leaguer. If you had told me that two months ago, I would have laughed in your face. He didn't take long to completely prove me wrong and I couldn't be more happy.

2) Josh Beckett has continued to improve as he gets more experience in the American League. He should be a solid starter for years.

3) Jonathan Papelbon is one of the most talented pitchers in the game. You could sense this last season but this season has only proven that more. I would take him over any other closer in baseball. I don't know if that's because I'm a homer but his talent is unquestionable.

4) The two Japanese imports have been great: we all knew Dice-K would be good and while it took him a little while to get used to MLB, he's adjusted just fine. As for Hideki Okajima? Nobody expected anything of this guy and he was an All-Star in his first season. Pretty amazing. He's taken over the set-up role at an important time as Timlin is unreliable anymore.

5) Ortiz and Manny were not who we thought they were. Ortiz (.314 avg, 14 HRs, 52 RBIs) and Manny (.284 avg, 11 HRs, 45 RBIs) had subpar first half by their ridiculous standards. Until proven otherwise, I would say these guys will both have better second halves. Ortiz's power numbers will go up while everything with Manny should go up. Ortiz has a bad right leg and Manny is 35 but I still can't picture them not picking it up. Time will catch up with them eventually but not this season.

6) Mike Lowell was a complete steal in the Beckett trade. Sure, he might not be here next year. Forgetting that, we've gotten some real value out of Lowell this past year and a half. He should have won a gold glove last year and he was an All-Star this season. What more do you want?

7)Lugo and Drew as expected are busts. Its not like people even had high hopes for these two but so far one has been a disaster (Lugo, batting .197) while the other has been simply average (.258 avg, 6 HRs, 33 RBIs). If they had decent first halves, the Sox would be up like 13-15 games.

8) Wily Mo will never do anything for the Sox. Baring an injury or trade, his role won't change and predictably neither will his production. The Red Sox version of Pedro Cerrano can't hit the curve ball or anything off-speed and he's an absolute nightmare in the field. Yikes. At least Arroyo is struggling this year with the Reds.

9) Coco Crisp won't be the player Theo and the minions expected when they signed him but he at least has found a role. He's playing a gold glove center field (but he'll never win as long as Torii Hunter is breathing) and getting on base consistently. What a concept. He's not a leadoff hitter which is too bad but i'm slowly starting to like him.

10) Schilling is the key to the Sox second half. If he isn't healthy or can't be effective, the Sox' margin for error is smaller. You need three quality starting pitchers to go far in the playoffs. Beckett, Dice-K, Schilling sounds right. Substituting Wakefield or Tavarez makes the Sox much less imposing. Schill lives for the big moment and if he can compete, you never want to bet against him.

Summer is here

Yesterday marked the official start of summer and there's some symmetry with that in baseball as this is the last weekend of interleague play. I for one will miss it. Many people (old-timers and players) seem to hate it but the last time I checked the regular season is 162 games. The Yankees games are fun but how many times can you see the Devil Rays, Blue Jays or Orioles? Interleague play gets your team out there as you can see how they stack up against the other league's squads. Players always whine about how it's unbalanced but who can predict when a division will be as bad as the NL Central this season. And plus, there's a pretty big margin for error as you can still beat up on your league's crappy teams after faltering through interleague play. Everyone has ball-busting road trips, you have to figure it all evens out during such a grueling schedule. The Red Sox are 10-5 through their first 15 games against NL teams and they fittingly end it at San Diego-arguably the best team in the National League.

There's no clear-cut top team in the NL; the Mets have the lineup but plenty of pitching problems. The Brewers look pretty good but they haven't sniffed the playoffs in years. The Dodgers and Braves are decent but nothing special by any means. The Rockies have been the hottest team in baseball, 22-7 in the last month and fresh off sweeping the Yankees at Coors yesterday but will their pitching hold up? With the Padres ridiculous pitching (their team ERA is 3.05, .31 ahead of the A's and .67 ahead of the Sox, who have the third best ERA), they'll always have a chance. Even if their offense is still pretty pathetic (team batting average-.246, 2nd worst in the league), they play in a spacious pitcher's park, they have an emerging star-first baseman Adrian Gonzalez-and enough other decent positional players-the Giles', Mike Cameron, Michael Barrett-to do something.
All three pitching matchups are beautiful, well maybe not so much on Saturday: Dice-K vs. Greg Maddux tonight, Wakefield vs. Chris Young Sat. and Beckett vs. Peavy (the two front-runners for their league's Cy Young) on Sunday afternoon. The old saying goes that good pitching beats good hitting so we'll see how these games play out. The Sox know how to wear pitchers out, so they've got that going from them. Coming off back-to-back shutouts of the Braves this week, the Sox pitching is also settling down after Schilling pitched a stinker on Monday at the Braves then went back to Boston and emerged on the DL-shoulder tendinitis. If the Sox pitchers can keep them in the game's-which is not too much to ask against this anemic lineup-the Sox will have as good a chance as any to put some runs on the board. Ortiz won't play all three games as they juggle around Lowell, Youk and Ortiz at NL parks with no DH. I have a couple friends in San Diego-easily one of the best US cities-who are going to all three of these games. Definitely wish I was in their shoes as this should be a fun weekend. It's the last time we'll see AL vs. NL (besides the All-Star Game) until the World Series.

Will the real Boston Red Sox please stand up?

I'll make this short: the Sox are scuffling. They've lost 8 of 13 in June while the Yankees have won their last nine in a row. The 14.5 game lead has been trimmed to 7.5 games on June 15. Time to panic? Not really. The Yankees are currently playing above their heads and given time (and tougher competition) they'll come back to earth once their bullpen is counted on in a series of close games. Conversely, the Sox are doing everything badly; terrible hitting, inconsistent pitching and shaky defense. This is not the real Red Sox, version 2007.

The Red Sox lost their last two games, 12-2 and 7-1 to the Colorado Rockies at Fenway. Schilling and Beckett both got shelled which was surprising. The Rockies can hit but there's no reason why the Sox should be held to 5 runs against them in a three game series. This weekend, Barry Bonds and his accompanying circus come to town with the San Francisco Giants. I'd like to see the Sox take two out of three and get back on track so to speak. The Yankees host the Mets (who've lost nine of their last 10). Clemens is going tonight. In a perfect world, he'd get shelled while Freddie Krueger (Julian Tavarez) outduels Barry Zito-probably the most overrated pitcher of the last 10 years.

Nothing is ever easy in baseball and I guess as Red Sox fans we should know better than to count on a division title in May. The Yankees still own most of the free world so they can never be counted out. Plus, it makes it more interesting if they're in it for most of the season. I'm not losing confidence, every team goes through bad spells but the fact that we have three automatic outs in our everyday lineup-Lugo, Drew and Crisp-is pretty scary. Regardless, I'd take Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Dice-K and Tavarez/Lester over Petitte, Clemens, Mussina, Wang and Clippard any day of the week. And Papelbon vs. Rivera is not even close anymore.

Back to your regularly scheduled program

The Sox are now 1/3rd of the way through the regular season: 37-18 with a 12.5 lead over the Yankees. I preface my post with this since I think its important to remember that and not just have a knee-jerk reaction over the Yankees taking two of three from the Sox (for the second time in less than two weeks). As I said a few weeks back, I thought it was time for the Sox to bury the Yankees. That might have been a little overly optimistic on my part but I'll stand by my original idea: the Yankees are not winning the AL East. Not a chance. It still stung when A-Rod hit that home run off Papelbon in the ninth last night and when Rivera recorded a shaky save against the heart of the Sox order (Ortiz, Manny, Youk). After 12 of 18 games, the Sox are 7-5 over the Yankees, cooling off from their 5-1 start. More importantly, the Sox won't see them again until Aug. 28-30 at the Stadium. So for now, forget about the Yankees. It's hard to do for a paranoid fan-base like the Red Sox particularly when we're in the unfamiliar position of being heavy favorites.
Sox-Yankees is the best rivalry in baseball and maybe the best rivalry in sports (with apologies to Army-Navy, Duke-UNC, Texas-Texas A-M, UCLA-USC and Colts-Pats among others). We are spoiled as Yankees or Sox fans; the last few seasons MLB has chosen to load the early season up with a bunch of these games. This is all well and good and I still find myself watching the games like they're Game 7 of the ALCS. Regardless, we have to reprogram ourselves to stop looking over our shoulders. This season, the Yankees are continually shooting themselves in the foot (A-Rod's stripper escapades, Giambi's home run celebratory injuries and the revolving door of minor league pitchers) and did I mention that Clemens still hasn't made his big return, because of his fatigued right groin (insert joke here)? For whatever reason, they've stepped up against us lately and yet against everyone else, they look like the Devil Rays.
The Sox flew out to Oakland last night and begin a three-game set with the A's tonight, followed by five interleague series' in a row (at Diamondbacks, vs. Rockies, vs. Giants, at Braves and at Padres). Before everything fell apart last season, the Sox posted an MLB best 16-2 record in interleague play. Expecting a repeat of that is unrealistic given how hot the D-Backs and Rockies have been and how good the Padres pitching staff is but the summer is just beginning.

The Sox have everything going for them. There is almost nothing to complain about. The only thing lacking is Julio Lugo-who can't hit his way out of a paper bag at the moment-and the predictable struggle and subsequent quasi-injury to J.D. Drew. Coco Crisp? He's dead to me. The money spent on Lugo and Drew looks pretty bad right now but nobody is perfect. Dice-K looks like a very nice investment, Okajima is incredible (which no one expected) while Pedroia is hitting .333 out of the number 2 slot and has already proven me wrong. The bullpen is still questionable in spots (Piniero and Romero are complete garbage) but every team is like that. With the five starting pitchers healthy and Lester very close to being back not to mention Okajima and Papelbon at the back end of the bullpen, the Sox are built for the long run. Lowell, Youk and to a lesser degree Varitek are adding more offensively than to be expected. Manny has heated up after a terrible April and Ortiz is killing the ball, just not getting the home runs you become accustomed to seeing. This isn't the Red Sox team that will lead the AL in home runs or runs but 1-9 they'll give almost every starting pitcher a tough outing since they almost all consistently have good at bats.

10.5 games and counting

When I wake up tomorrow morning and check out the standings in the Boston Globe, my beloved Boston Red Sox will be 10.5 games up on Baltimore, 10.5 up on the Yankees, 11 games ahead of Toronto and 12 games in front of Tampa Bay. It will be May 21 and tomorrow night's game at Yankee Stadium (the start of a three game set) will be the 44th of the Sox' season. It's way too early to start popping the champagne and thinking about playoff matchups but I for one can't help but feel a little strange about how things are going.The Sox took 2 of 3 from the Braves this weekend-the first interleague action of the year-while the Mets (thanks Bee Rock) won 2 of 3 against the Yanks. Baltimore and Tampa Bay as usual look like also-rans rather than contenders while the Blue Jays and Yankees are enduring an almost comical string of injuries to assorted players. A three game set with the Yankees in the end of May usually doesn't mean all too much but in this case I think it's time to kick 'em while they're down. We all know the Yankees aren't as good right now as they most likely will be in the coming weeks and months. Sweeping this series would put the Yankees 13.5 games back. That's fun to write, let alone dream about. 2 out of 3 would make them 12.5 back before Memorial Day. A little history lesson: the '78 Sox were up 14 games on the Yankees and somehow managed to choke (Bucky Dent) and lose the division to the Yanks (pre-Wild Card). Fast forward to 2007 and you'll find two different teams: the Sox are the front-runners this time as well but they're not the overachievers. This Sox team is stacked. Great starting pitching, very solid lineup and good bullpen. The 2007 Yankees are looking older by the day, unless you're focusing on their revolving door set of local little league pitchers that get to dress up as big leaguers and get knocked around for a few starts.I know what you're going to say. Yes, Clemens is coming back. But as discussed before (scroll down), he probably won't make that much of a difference to this old and flawed team. And yes, the Sox will undoubtedly endure some injuries because this is baseball. Josh Beckett just went on the DL earlier this week with another tear on his right middle finger (the 7th time in his career that he's been on the DL for hand ailments). The Sox started two AAA pitchers on Saturday and Sunday and split the games. Hopefully Beckett will be back soon and everything will be hunky dorey but for once we have some pitching depth. This isn't the Sox of my middle school and high school days where it was Pedro, Wakefield and a cast of assorted clowns. Schilling is still pretty reliable, Wakefield has been great (which you can't expect all season), Tavarez has been very good for him and Dice-K is quickly becoming a stud MLB-style.The Yankees have never been down 10+ games in the Torre era (1996-present). Get used to hearing that stat consistently as these two teams seem to be headed in opposite directions. It's time to step on the Yankees throats (like they did to us in last August's brutal five game sweep at Fenway).

the Rocket lands in the Bronx

Big news yesterday coming out of Yankee Stadium. Never one to shy away from obnoxious amounts of media attention, Roger Clemens announced during the seventh inning stretch that he's coming back to the Yankees. Immediately, there was a jolt of excitement added to what is already regarded as the best rivalry in sports-Sox vs. Yankees. This season, the Sox have won five of the first six against the Bombers and for once, it looks like they have the upper-hand on a Yankees team short of capable pitchers. Word is Roger will come back in the beginning of June and would you believe the Yanks come to Boston, June 1-3? You can bank on that. Roger at Fenway. I wonder what clever design the guys that sell anti-Yankees t-shirts outside of Fenway will come up with this time around? I'm giddy with anticipation for those alone.
When you sit down and think about it, was there ever any doubt Clemens would go to New York again? Pettitte came back to the Yankees in the off-season and the Astros have continued to go downhill. Why not cash in on one last big pay-day ($28 million pro-rated over the season)? The Rocket is many things, a poor man is not one of them. I guess that dream of pitching to his son Kody (the Astros minor league catcher) will have to wait.
The big question is how effective can Clemens be in the 2007 American League? The AL lineups are far tougher without the NL's wasteland of 7-8-9 hitters. Also, he'll be 45 in August and steroids or no steroids, the man has to break down at some point. He's a power pitcher. He's defying all common sense by having such a long career. He last pitched for the Sox in 1996 which seems like about 50 years ago. I guess there is no measuring stick, we'll have to wait and see what'll happen. He's pitched very well in Houston the last three seasons (ERA's of 2.98, 1.87 and 2.30 respectively) and famously gotten terrible run-support. The Yanks will certainly back him up from an offensive standpoint but I think the biggest problem will be that he'll only last 5-7 innings in most starts which'll leave the game in the hands of the Yankees crew of hapless relievers. Even-dare I say it-Mariano Rivera is no longer invincible. Clemens can only pitch every fifth day. Then again, I'm a Sox fan and their former G.M. Dan Duquette said in 1996 that Clemens was heading into the "twilight of his career." If you stop and look at that bum under the bridge next time you're in Boston, you might recognize him-it's Dan Duquette. What a fucking idiot.

your 2007 Red Sox

It's only eight games into the season (4-4) but it's never too early as a fan to start forecasting how your favorite team will do. So far, the Red Sox have been pretty inconsistent as their middling record indicates. They won 2 of 3 at the Royals (who you might not know are still a major league team), lost 2 of 3 to the Rangers (who still don't have pitching) and have most recently split-1 and 1-with an average Mariners team.

It's been famously said that a baseball season is like a marathon, a grind, horse race, etc. With that said, I think at different times in this long season, you can point to possible weaknesses and troublespots that almost certainly will arise at some point. For the Red Sox, the two biggest problems are quite obvious: 1) the bottom of the lineup and 2) the back end of the rotation.

The 2003-2005 Sox teams were all stacked lineups, a big reason why they reached the playoffs all three years. Last year though, the wheels started to fall off as a ton of injuries happened and the Sox could never recover not to mention guys were getting past their prime (Trot Nixon, Jason Varitek I'm looking at you). This past offseason the Sox went out and got Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Both moves were met with criticism as Lugo has never played for a winner (other than sitting on the Dodgers bench for the 2nd half of last season) and Drew is only slightly less injury prone than Ken Griffey Jr. So far so good from these two though, Lugo seems to be a capable leadoff man and shortstop and Drew is very talented. Right now the batting order goes: Lugo, Youkilis, Ortiz, Manny, Drew, Lowell, Varitek, Crisp, Pedroia. 1-6 is top-notch, Lowell proved last year that he can still hit. The question lies in the last three. Varitek got hurt last year and was out for a long stretch of the season (coinciding with the Sox completely folding) and it looks like he has completely lost his way at the plate. He swings at everything (and misses) and can't drive anything. But he's still an outstanding defensive catcher that does so much for our pitching staff and Doug Mirabelli is the backup so he's not going anywhere. Coco Crisp is a complete bum. He broke a finger in the beginning of last season and has never really recovered since then. He was supposed to be our leadoff guy last year but he's not suited for it so now he's buried at the 8th spot. He has no paitence at the plate and to compound that, he's just not a good hitter. He's fast but given that he can't get on and the Sox never run, that doesn't matter. Which leaves us with Dustin Pedroia. The young second baseman must have incriminating pictures of someone in the Sox front office because he got called up last season (and did absolutely nothing to impress) and yet the Sox let Mark Loretta (a cheap, reliable, veteran 2B) walk to the Astros. Pedroia is the equivilent of Turtle on Entourage. He has basically been given a golden ticket and he's just happy to be along for the ride on a MLB team. A little harsh? Probably but if you had to watch this guy regularly, you'd wonder how he's gotten here. There doesn't seem to be much to hope for other than the Sox somehow dumping Crisp and Pedroia on some unsuspecting team, pretty unlikely.

As for the back end of the rotation. Schilling has looked terrible and great in his two starts. Beckett good and great and Dice K great and ok. All three of those guys should be fine, all could win anywhere from 12-20 games. Tim Wakefield to a lesser extent and whoever is number 5 (currently Julian Tavarez aka Freddie Kruger) are the guys I would worry about. Wake had a good first start against the Rangers, only giving up two runs but the Sox once again forgot to provide support. Something that they haven't done for Wakefield in years. Tavarez is just the answer while Jon Lester recovers from cancer in the minors or maybe Roger Clemens decides to come pitch for the Sox again. There are very few rotations that can touch this one still you want something more reliable than Tavarez and Wakefield, who can give up 8 home runs on any given start. Bottom line: this is a good team and could be great. The Orioles and Devil Rays are still awful, the Yankees have zero pitching and the Blue Jays are unproven. The AL East is right there for the taking. Other than that, we'll worry about it later.

And Thus It Begins......

Leave it to the Red Sox to create regular season controversy in Spring Training. While the Sox play out the string on its Grapefruit League schedule, they had the "onions" as Bill Raftery would say, to name young flame-thrower Jonathan Papelbon closer. Again. I still haven't decided where I stand on this precarious subject so I'll lay it all out for you the reader.
Going into the season, the Sox as usual have huge expectations (although these are mostly deserved). Boston has the starting pitching and the bats to compete with anybody. The one major weakness? A off-season and spring training long search to find someone, anyone to be the closer. The names of Joel Piniero (too crappy), Mike Timlin (too old) and Brandon Donnelly (not his normal role) have all been leaked as possible closers. The problem is that none of these guys is cut out to be a closer at this point in his respective career, on a World Series contending team no less. It all would be simple if Papelbon hadn't gotten hurt in a meaningless September 1st game vs. the Blue Jays last Fall.
Papelbon's pitching shoulder came out of its socket, due to overuse. I'm no WebMD but I think that be bad. All he did in his rookie year was save 35 games, be named an AL all-star and sure up the closer position from a disgruntled and disinterested Keith Foulke. From the first week of the season (when he assumed the role) until late Summer (when the Sox completely folded), you could make a very could argument that Paps was the top closer in the league. He had 75 strikeouts in 68.1 innings, had an absurd ERA of 0.92 and generally just blew guys away. He relied mostly on a upper 90's fastball but also mixed in a dirty changeup and slider to keep hitters honest. You had complete faith in him, just a few months into his first full league in the Majors. The injury however, changed everything. We don't want him to become the next Eric Gagne (circa 2005-2006). All Winter we were told how he was going to be turned into a starter (what he was coming up through the minors) which would cause less stress on that golden right arm. Also, he'd be rounding out a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, some guy named Dice-K and Wakefield. Not bad. Only problem was that between all the cash Boston spent on Julio Lugo (dry heave), J.D. Drew (I just puked in my mouth) and to talk to Dice-K, they forgot that we had no closer. Short of rounding up bums in Boston, the Sox did everything to figure this out in a Walmart-style fashion. Unfortunately, even in Spring Training (when you're playing Double A and Triple A guys that won't sniff the big leagues), the formidable trio of closers all failed.
Many will say/have said that going to Papelbon means the Sox are pushing the panic button. While that is true in a sense, it's an extremely tough call to make. I think that a dominant closer is more important than a good starter (and let's face it, Paps would only be a #3 this year). Look at Mariano Rivera. Was anyone more important to the Yankees dynasty of the late 90's and early Millenium? Having a lights out closer is huge. Using recent history as an example, the Sox used a closer by committee (bullshit) method which famously imploded in the 2003 playoffs (with a big assist going to manager Grady Little's complete stupidity). In 2004 with Keith Foulke at the end of games, the Red Sox won the World Series. Coincidence? Probably not. The last two World Series champs used younger, more unknown guys-Bobby Jenks of the White Sox and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals-to close but they similarly got the job done. You have to ride the hot hand. Who knows what to expect from Papelbon? He showed last year many flashes of utter dominance. He's coming off a major pitching injury though. With him, the Sox can get to the promised land. Without him? Yikes.
All I know is that baseball is starting on Sunday and I can't wait.